Why this blog

This blog is to give readers an idea of the social, economic and political issues across India and the world, supported with facts and data. To begin with most of my articles are India centric, but I would write about issues across the whole world because I consider myself a citizen of the world. Writing is just a way of creating awareness, however we must all step out of our houses and take-up service projects in groups in our respective localities to make the world a better place. The idea would be of "global vision and local action". We are a one world family and we all must Volunteer For A Better World.

Monday, March 17, 2014

Lok Sabha Elections India 2014 - Part 4

The calculus of voting in India (2014)

According to data from the 2004 Lok Sabha Elections, the following was the voter turnout distribution according to income:-


The above data gives us an indication of the voter turnout pattern as per income groups. Unfortunately income distribution in India can no longer be categorised into the above three categories. Probably an accurate categorisation would be very poor, poor, lower middle class, middle class, upper middle class, rich, very rich. Nevertheless statistics reveal that majority of the voter come under the poor/very poor category. Studies so far suggest that voting patterns in India are in direct contradiction to socio-economic characteristics. Why do poor in India turn out in large number to vote ? I am attempting to answer this question with the help of the following points:-
(Some points are taken from published papers)
  1. According to surveys, on election day the poor stand in the queue for long hours, even in adverse weather conditions, give up their daily wages to caste their vote. Some even wear new clothes. Across all gender and age groups people turn up to the polling booths to vote. On being asked why, their response was fairly uniform "It is our right". Many said that the election day is one day when they matter. Party workers and politicians come to them seeking votes. This is one day when their citizenship counts, is recognised and acknowledged.
  2. Some of the poorer section vote thinking "if we don't vote who knows what might happen? We could lose our homes, ration cards, police would come around our homes and harass us. If we don't vote, we are dead for the state."
  3. Basically the motivation for a larger section of the poor to vote is either out of coercion, fear, persuasion, temporary goodies (like Rs. 500 or a bottle of liquor), or illusionary social concepts. However ironically it has also been observed that many of the people from poorer sections are much well informed about their polling station details etc., than the middle class or upper class sections.
  4. Poorer sections do perceive elections as a matter of right. Also it gives them a perceived sense of equality with all the sections of the society because voting is the most egalitarian act among all possible modes of political participation. Everyone has to queue up to caste their vote regardless of their class or social status. The rules of election are the same for everyone.
  5. The middle class perceive voting as either a civic duty or a means to get access to state resources. Some even think of it as an opportunity to get their voter ids done to use them as address proofs/identity proofs. 
  6. For the rich voting is optional. Because it is too insignificant in their socio-economic sphere of experience. They know that they would anyway have to pay bribes to officials to get their job done. So they do not take specific political sides. Rather they patronise all influential political parties equally
In essence, none of the socio-economic classes (rich, poor or middle class) perceive elections and voting as an apparatus for carrying out fundamental changes in social, economic and political spheres of the country for the collective good of the entire population of the country and the world. If properly used, voting is the strongest and the most effective instrument for not only political but also social and economic transformation in a country. Unfortunately today majority of the population(educated or uneducated) of India (and other parts of the world) are completely ignorant of this phenomena.

With this qualitative and quantitative understanding we can derive the plausible voter turnout trend for India (2014) as:-

Let us divide the Socio-Economic classes in India as follows:
VP - very poor ; probability of voting = p1 ; population = N1
P - poor ; probability of voting = p2 ; population = N2
LM - lower middle; probability of voting = p3 ; population = N3
M - middle ; probability of voting = p4 ; population = N4
UM - upper middle ; probability of voting = p5 ; population = N5
R - rich ; probability of voting = p6 ; population = N6
VR - Very rich ; probability of voting = p7 ; population = N7

Hence,
Voter turnout(VT) = p1N1 + p2N1 + p3N3 + p4N4 + p5N5 + p6N6 + p7N7
Here only the first three terms would dominate. The last 4 terms would not be significant.

VT = p1N1 + p2N2 + p3N3

Let us redefine B as
B - sum total of psychological and civil benefits as perceived by the voter of that income group, for each income group, B will have a different value.
B should range between (0 - 1).

C = Psychological cost of voting for that income group
(The tangible economic cost of voting is not taken into consideration because of the dominance of the concept of perceived benefits in comparison to actual tangible benefits, based on the discussions above)

Hence C1, C2, C3 etc. are negligible in lower income groups. But in higher income groups these may not be negligible.

p1 = B1 - C1
p2 = B2 - C2
p3 = B3 - C3

Hence,

VT = B1N1 + B2N2 + B3N3

Note : As of today's scenario in India, B4, B5, B6, B7 are much lesser because the perceived civil and psychological benefits of voting by upper classes is minimal

Hence voter turnout in India today is essentially governed by the above equation.

How do we change the equation ?
Let us call this -
THE LAW OF VOTING :
If properly used, voting is the strongest and the most effective instrument for not only political but also social and economic transformation in a country.

If people of all socio-economic classes (especially the upper classes) are made aware of the Law of Voting, then their perceived psychological and civil benefits of voting would increase much more than those of the lower socio-economic groups, because the higher socio-economic group is more educated, intellectually more mature and has access to more resources.
So the equation above would change to,

VT = B1N1 + B2N2 + B3N3 + B4N4 + B5N5 + B6N6 + B7N7
(B4 to B7) would then start contributing significantly

The advantage of the above would be that these perceived civil and psychological benefits would then actually become real and tangible benefits that each section of the society (lower to upper socio-economic groups) would start enjoying equally. Consequently N1 to N3 numbers would start reducing and N4 to N7 numbers would start increasing, bringing the society towards more harmonious indices of social and economic prosperity and well being.

Though right now N4 to N7 numbers are less, but their role and responsibility  in establishing a sound political governance is much higher, because majority of the population in these groups (N4 to N7) are intellectually better equipped to render sound rational judgement in terms of electing the suitable political party for running the governance machinery of this country. Also N4 to N7 can act as better watchmen to keep a watch on the moves of the government which would act as a deterrent for all political parties in terms of good governance.

No comments:

Post a Comment